How Latter-day Saints, Muslims in Michigan, Black Protestants or Latino Catholics might sway the 2024 election

In the lead-up to the 2024 elections, white Christian nationalists and “MAGA evangelicals” are sucking up a lot of the air in the religion media space.

And for good reason. As Tobin Miller Shearer of the University of Montana wrote for The Conversation: 

In the 2016 race, evangelical voters contributed, in part, to Republican nominee Donald Trump’s victory. Those Americans who identified as “weekly churchgoers” not only showed up at the polls in large numbers, but more than 55% of them supported Trump. His capture of 66% of the white evangelical vote also tipped the scales in his favor against his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton.

Evangelicals look set to support the former president in outsized numbers again — with a Pew Research Survey indicating 82% of white evangelical Protestants are likely to vote for Trump in November — and a significant “subset of Christian nationalists, which some suggest amounts to roughly 10% of the US population,” are rallying around him as they push “for Christianity to be the official, dominant religion of the US.”

But religious Americans from other backgrounds and traditions, such as Catholics, mainliners and Black Protestants — whom Bob Smietana and Jack Jenkins of RNS called “swing state faith voters” — could also prove critical to electoral victory due to their influence in key swing states. 

In this edition of ReligionLink, we offer a roundup of stories, perspectives and sources from a broad swath of faith constituencies around the U.S., addressing questions such as: How might Hindus be approaching local and state elections? How might Muslims in swing states prove decisive for the Electoral College? How might the nonreligious approach key ballot issues differently from others? 

U.S. Presidential Primaries: The Religion Source Guide

Buckle up, cause presidential primary season is about to really get underway.

With Iowa Republicans gathering to caucus on Jan. 15, New Hampshire’s controversial primaries coming for both parties on Jan. 23 and a flurry of primaries and caucuses following in quick succession after that, U.S. presidential politics are going to take an increasingly prime spot in our news coverage.

The road to 270 Electoral College votes next year will likely careen back-and-forth on a range of issues, from Social Security and Medicare to abortion and immigration. Along the way, it is important not to lose sight of the critical role the faith factor will play in how voters view each issue, potentially deciding who voters will choose in 2024. 

As many (re)learned in the last two elections, we ignore religion’s role in presidential elections at our peril.  

With next year unlikely to prove an exception to the rule of religion’s influence in presidential politics, this source guide provides an overview of several candidates’ faith backgrounds and angles on how religion may influence their electability in the year to come. 

Background

Despite a decline in overall religious adherence, faith continues to influence U.S. politics, not least because, in the shift from privilege to plurality, religious Americans — particularly of the evangelical variety — are not going quietly. The result is that the demographic change, where an increasing number of Americans identify as nonreligious and Christians might soon be a minority, has not meant more consensus, but increasingly polarized debates about the role of faith in U.S. public life.

The fault lines are many and include debates over access to, or restrictions on, abortion, and culture war and church-state separation issues such as banning materials dealing with sexuality and gender identity from schools or discussions of “critical race theory” from the classroom. Feeling ever more like a minority, conservative religious actors have embraced the mantle of “religious freedom,” positioning themselves as needing protection from the encroachments of a leftist agenda, led by a secular majority. All of this is cast against a background of increased “Christian nationalism,” the desire that the nation’s civic life be defined by Christianity — in its identification, history, symbols, values and public policies — and that the government take active steps to enforce this view and impose it on the populace.

At the same time, actors on the religious left can be seen at the front of protests and marches advocating for civil rights, gun control, access to abortion and immigration reform. And prominent Democrats such as Raphael Warnock and Joe Biden position their faith as a core component of their political platforms. The religious left, thought to be dormant for decades, has been quietly resurgent in recent years and may shape the 2024 elections in a significant way.

The impact of these demographic realities, debates and differing perspectives has been uneven, varying from state to state based on their respective populations, politics and histories. Some are asserting a kind of Christian identity and enacting policies that are in line with their interpretation thereof. Others are adopting what they see as more secular laws appropriate for a more plural society.

In any event, religion will — as it always has — play a prominent role in the primary season and, inevitably, during next autumn’s general elections. In fact, this year might feature one of the most religiously diverse batch of presidential candidates we have yet seen, reflecting the nation’s shifting, and increasingly plural, religious landscape.

Is Ted Cruz running for "theologian-in-chief?"

Today (March 23, 2015) Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) announced his candidacy for the presidency. He did so via video-tweet early in the morning and will follow the social media announcement up with a formal declaration of his bid for the White House at Liberty University. He is the first candidate to formally announce his campaign for 2016. 

Liberty University, the largest Christian university in the U.S. and extremely influential among evangelicals, was founded by the late Jerry Falwell Sr. and it regularly plays host to political leaders and faith-filled influencers. For example, last year's commencement address was given by Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-Louisiana) who also might be running for president in 2016. 

Given the location of Cruz's announcement and the fact that his senatorial state, Texas, is renowned for both its Bible belt mentality and a growing diversity of faiths in its major urban centers it makes sense to wonder what makes Cruz's soul tick. This is pertinent to apperceiving how this might shape the way he campaigns, governs, and represents the U.S. not only in the halls and chambers of the U.S. Capitol, but potentially in the White House. Furthermore, will it have an impact on Cruz's performance in the primaries?

*For more on religion & culture, follow @kchitwood

Back in 2012 when Cruz was running against Paul Sadler (D) in the race for U.S. Senator I had the chance to talk to him about his faith. Cruz was congenial and kind, relaxed as he gave his interview in the early hours of the morning. 

Cruz grew up in a Christian home and is Baptist. He sees his faith and spirituality as an integral part of his character, but was careful to remind me (and yes, you the voter as well) that he holds it at arms length when it comes to policy decisions and governance. 

Cruz attended Faith West Academy in Katy, TX, a conservative and expanding suburb west of Houston.  He later went to Second Baptist High School. Both Faith West and Second Baptist are among the top ten largest, and influential, Christian schools in the Bayou City. His wife and he are members today at Houston’s First Baptist, another large and affluent congregation in Houston.

The senator said he “gave his life to Christ” at age eight at Clay Road Baptist Church. Religion was an integral part of his upbringing. Born to a Cuban refugee father and mother from Delaware Cruz joked that "I'm Cuban, Irish and Italian, and yet somehow I ended up Southern Baptist." 

His father, Rafael Cruz is reportedly the Director of Purifying Fire International Ministry, founded by Suzanne Hinn, wife of mega-pastor and spirit healer Benny Hinn. Often appearing at functions with his son, Pastor Cruz has been quoted in speaking to a gather of Christians, "The majority of you… your anointing… is an anointing as king. God has given you an anointing to go to the battlefield. And what’s the battlefield? The marketplace. To go to the marketplace and occupy the land. To go to the marketplace and take dominion.” 

Reminiscent of "Christian dominionism" -- the idea that Christians should work toward a nation governed by Christians or at least by a conservative Christian understanding of biblical law -- Ted Cruz's father (whom he is named after as Rafael Edward "Ted" Cruz) seems to contradict his son's sentiments regarding faith and politics. But so do some of Cruz's own actions. 

“Your faith impacts every aspect of your life,” said Cruz. He commented that it guides him to serve others, to have a positive impact in his community and insisted that on the campaign trail it means trying to conduct a campaign with civility.  

When it comes to governance, Cruz said his touchstone is the U.S. Constitution and that he tries, “to stay out of theological disputes.

“I am running for U.S. senator, not theologian-in-chief,” he said.

And yet it appears that Cruz regularly weaves theology and faith into his politics. In 2014 he passionately led a news conference at his home church, Houston's First Baptist, denouncing Mayor Annise Parker's move to attempt to subpoena pastors' sermons. That event served as a rallying cry for Christian conservatives across the country and Cruz was sure to capitalize on the moment. 

David Brody, host of the Christian Broadcast Network's "Brody File," said concerning Cruz's speech: 

“Cruz comes from a different place. Not only has he defended religious liberty cases in court, he defends it in public with the word of God. He has the “street cred” to make this a signature issue in his bid to strongly woo the evangelical vote. Watching him in action Thursday, in front of a passionate overflow room gave me pause. It made me realize that this is the issue that could set him apart from others with the evangelical audience. If Mike Huckabee runs, he’ll be right in the mix too but at this point, Cruz seems to be leading the way on this. It looks to be his evangelical calling card and a heartfelt one at that.”

While he may be the golden child of religious freedom for some evangelicals, Cruz differs from a sizable core of evangelical leaders on immigration reform. He voted against a bipartisan bill that passed the Senate in 2013 that would give a path to citizenship to some 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the U.S.

Although Cruz is the first Latino to serve as a U.S. senator from Texas he has criticized his party's pandering to Hispanic voters, saying it is akin to “Democrat Lite." Cruz also tries to remind leader that Latina/os are deeply religious and socially conservative. “There is a wide and varied faith tradition in my family and it’s the same for the Hispanic community,” he said.

Beyond disputes about immigration reform Cruz has proven a divisive figure in conservative politics with his crusade against Obamacare, his filibuster in the Senate, and his positions on Israel and Christians in the Middle East giving witness to his fire-brand style of Tea Party politics. Yet, Cruz is seen as the frontrunner among Tea Party faithful and has been lauded by some conservative evangelical circles -- indicated by his speech at Liberty in Lynchburg, VA today. In 2014 he placed first in the Values Voter Summit presidential straw poll for the second year in a row. He beat out second-place Ben Carson (20%) and another evangelical favorite, Mike Huckabee, who came in third with 12%. 

A recent Pew Forum study reported that America’s 60 million religiously unaffiliated don't care much about a candidate’s faith. While 67% of the general public and 75% of the religiously affiliated believe it is important for a candidate, specifically a presidential one, to have strong religious beliefs, only 32% of America’s religious “nones” think it is.

As much as there may be a religious gap when it comes to caring about a candidate’s faith, there is also a generational one. The Public Religion Research Institute revealed that Millennials are evenly split on the issue, with 49% saying it is somewhat or very important and 48% responding it is not too important or not at all.

Nonetheless, some still believe it is important to understand a candidate’s faith and gives you insight into who a candidate really is.

“Sometimes you have to get at religion to understand what a politician really means with their policies and comments,” said Amy Sullivan, who covers religion and politics for TIME magazine. But, she said, “The implications are more important than the religious positions themselves.”

The question is not how much Cruz's faith will impact his electability, but how it will shape and form his potential presidency. While in rhetoric Cruz is plain about the separation of church and state his deeds and maneuvers are more ambivalent -- as his announcement at Liberty University makes clear. 

*For more on religion & culture, follow @kchitwood